KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

34%

33%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 25.60u

WN2NO 74.4¢Risks 74.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.40u · WN2 −74.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:52+00:00	4.7%	67.2%	7.8%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	4.7%	67.2%	7.8%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	4.7%	67.2%	7.8%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	4.7%	67.2%	7.8%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	4.7%	67.2%	7.8%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	4.7%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	4.7%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	4.7%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:47+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	3.5%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	6.3%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	7.4%	67.1%	71.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	9.6%	53.8%	71.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	9.6%	53.8%	71.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	9.1%	62.5%	9.6%	53.8%	71.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	12.0%	62.5%	9.6%	53.8%	71.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	12.0%	62.5%	9.6%	53.8%	71.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	12.0%	62.5%	9.6%	53.8%	71.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	21.8%	33.5%	6.4%	45.2%	21.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	21.8%	33.5%	6.4%	45.2%	21.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	21.8%	33.5%	6.4%	45.2%	21.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	21.8%	33.5%	6.7%	45.2%	21.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	21.8%	33.5%	6.7%	45.2%	21.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	21.8%	33.5%	6.7%	45.2%	21.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	6.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	6.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	6.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	6.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	6.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	12.9%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	11.8%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	11.8%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	11.8%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	11.8%	33.5%	5.7%	33.0%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	46%	82.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	76.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗