KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

52%

29%

17%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.8¢Risks 31.80u

WN2NO 68.2¢Risks 68.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.20u · WN2 −68.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	12.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	15.9%	—	45.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	54.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	44.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	7.3%	—	37.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	61.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	2.2%	41.9%	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	63.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	26.9%	44.4%	0.2%	24.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	21.0%	44.2%	6.4%	34.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	44.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	38.7%	46.2%	16.4%	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	33.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	28.8%	33.7%	23.0%	27.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	31.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	23.8%	26.5%	22.5%	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	5.6%	28.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	26.2%	29.1%	15.6%	28.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	26.4%	38.5%	—	22.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	22.3%	27.4%	7.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	20.3%	26.9%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	22.5%	28.7%	10.2%	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	15.8%	35.3%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	12.8%	29.4%	5.2%	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	18.3%	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	19.8%	23.8%	3.3%	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	16.8%	27.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	83.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	80.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	79.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗