KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

21%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.8¢Risks 12.75u

WN2NO 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.25u · WN2 −87.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	7.5%	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	37.1%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	27.1%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	2.6%	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	41.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.6%	23.8%	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	43.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	12.6%	25.2%	0.0%	10.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	30.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	8.7%	24.3%	1.9%	17.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	23.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	19.5%	25.1%	6.0%	12.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	15.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.3%	15.4%	9.0%	11.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.0%	10.4%	8.3%	14.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.3%	11.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.7%	11.3%	4.7%	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	9.6%	16.6%	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.3%	9.8%	1.6%	3.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.1%	9.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.8%	9.8%	2.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.0%	13.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.8%	9.4%	0.8%	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.5%	7.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	6.2%	0.4%	5.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	3.5%	7.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	25%	83.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	80.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗