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KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
7%
HRES
6%
AIFS
2%
ICON
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 3.8¢Risks 0.94u
VS
WN2NO 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.06u · WN2 −24.06u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:003.4%————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%———2.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:005.2%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.5%———2.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.5%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:001.8%———1.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:004.0%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:001.6%———3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.7%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.2%———4.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.4%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.1%———8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:005.8%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:002.9%———9.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:004.5%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.6%———10.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:007.9%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.1%———15.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:002.1%—2.4%——
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:005.7%———9.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0010.4%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0024.5%—3.0%—15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.8%—21.8%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.4%———10.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.0%———10.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.3%—13.8%——
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.1%—0.8%—9.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.3%—23.7%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.0%0.1%11.1%—9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.4%—24.5%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:002.2%4.7%11.5%0.0%3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.2%—14.8%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.1%2.8%10.6%0.4%6.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.9%—10.1%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.6%7.6%10.7%1.7%4.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.8%—5.4%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.5%3.9%5.3%2.6%3.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.6%—4.5%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.6%2.5%3.0%2.2%4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.2%3.3%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.5%2.5%3.1%1.0%2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.3%2.4%5.0%—1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.2%1.6%2.3%0.2%0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%1.2%2.1%—0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.3%2.1%0.3%1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%3.0%—0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.8%0.1%0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.6%1.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%0.9%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.4%1.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast19%86.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%85.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%82.5°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend5%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%80.5°F4.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON2%81.1°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%79.0°F3.7°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗