KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 3.8¢Risks 0.94u

WN2NO 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.06u · WN2 −24.06u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:54+00:00	8.3%	23.4%	6.2%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	8.3%	8.7%	4.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	8.3%	8.7%	4.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	8.3%	8.7%	4.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	12.4%	8.7%	4.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	12.4%	8.7%	4.1%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	4.1%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	4.1%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	4.1%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	3.3%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	3.3%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	3.3%	30.7%	9.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	3.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	3.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	3.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	3.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	3.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	8.5%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	2.3%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	4.0%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	4.0%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	9.7%	9.6%	4.0%	16.4%	31.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	5.3%	9.6%	4.0%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	5.3%	9.6%	4.0%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	5.3%	9.6%	4.0%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	5.3%	9.6%	4.0%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	5.3%	9.6%	4.0%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	5.3%	9.6%	2.3%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	5.3%	4.4%	2.3%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	5.3%	4.4%	2.3%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	12.9%	4.4%	2.3%	17.3%	16.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	12.9%	4.4%	2.3%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	2.3%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:08+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	2.3%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	3.0%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	3.0%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	3.0%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	3.0%	17.4%	16.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.0%	10.7%	29.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.0%	10.7%	29.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.0%	10.7%	29.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.0%	10.7%	29.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	4.1%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	3.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	5.5%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	29.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	2.8%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	2.8%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	2.8%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	2.8%	4.1%	2.4%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	2.8%	8.7%	0.9%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	2.8%	8.7%	0.9%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	2.8%	8.7%	0.9%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	2.8%	8.7%	0.9%	10.7%	15.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	0.9%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	0.9%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	0.9%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	0.9%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	3.6%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	13.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	13.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	13.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.3%	9.7%	13.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.3%	11.6%	13.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.8%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.8%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	4.7%	8.7%	1.8%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	3.5%	8.7%	1.8%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	3.5%	8.7%	1.8%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	3.5%	8.7%	1.8%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	3.5%	8.7%	1.8%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	3.5%	8.7%	1.8%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	3.5%	11.2%	0.3%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	3.5%	11.2%	0.3%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	3.5%	11.2%	0.3%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	3.3%	11.2%	0.3%	9.7%	6.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	3.4%	11.2%	0.3%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	3.4%	7.3%	0.3%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	3.4%	7.3%	0.3%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	3.4%	7.3%	0.3%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	3.4%	7.3%	0.2%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	3.4%	7.3%	0.2%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	3.4%	7.3%	0.2%	9.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	2.6%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.1%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	0.2%	3.8%	6.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	1.8%	7.3%	0.2%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	1.8%	7.3%	0.2%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	1.8%	7.3%	0.2%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	1.8%	7.3%	0.2%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	1.8%	7.3%	0.2%	5.9%	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	19%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	85.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	82.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	80.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	81.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗