KDFW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

50%

38%

27%

15%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

WN2NO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.50u · WN2 −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	30.9%	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	60.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	2.7%	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	33.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	1.1%	28.2%	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	47.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	53.5%	34.3%	5.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	38.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	43.4%	32.3%	16.5%	35.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	44.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	34.4%	36.5%	15.5%	27.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	46.1%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	37.5%	42.1%	17.9%	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	44.3%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	28.6%	30.0%	17.8%	26.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	10.7%	36.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	37.9%	32.2%	12.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	32.6%	28.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	86.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	85.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	82.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗