KDFW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.8¢Risks 13.80u

WN2NO 86.2¢Risks 86.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.20u · WN2 −86.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	13.8%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	37.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	19.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.5%	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	14.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.1%	10.5%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	26.9%	13.4%	1.1%	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	15.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	18.4%	11.7%	4.4%	13.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.2%	13.4%	3.8%	8.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	18.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.1%	15.9%	4.3%	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	16.8%	—	7.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	8.0%	8.7%	3.9%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.8%	11.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	11.8%	9.0%	2.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	8.8%	7.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	29%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	86.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	82.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗