KDFW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.8¢Risks 13.80u

WN2NO 86.2¢Risks 86.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.20u · WN2 −86.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:49+00:00	12.9%	24.9%	8.2%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	12.9%	23.9%	8.2%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	12.9%	23.9%	8.2%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	12.9%	23.9%	8.2%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	12.9%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	12.9%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	12.9%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	54.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	54.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	54.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	9.1%	20.6%	54.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	9.1%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	14.0%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	13.6%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	12.0%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	12.0%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	15.7%	23.9%	12.0%	29.4%	54.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	13.0%	23.9%	12.0%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	13.0%	23.9%	12.0%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	13.0%	23.9%	12.0%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	13.0%	23.9%	12.0%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	13.0%	23.9%	12.0%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	13.0%	23.3%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	13.0%	23.3%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	13.0%	23.3%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	10.8%	23.3%	8.9%	34.3%	43.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	10.8%	23.4%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.9%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	5.7%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	5.7%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	5.7%	34.1%	43.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	5.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	5.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	5.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	5.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	5.7%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	8.6%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	4.8%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.6%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.6%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.6%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	10.8%	16.0%	8.6%	21.1%	36.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	7.9%	16.0%	8.6%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	7.9%	16.0%	8.6%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	7.9%	16.0%	8.6%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	7.9%	16.0%	8.6%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	7.9%	16.0%	8.6%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	3.2%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.7%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.7%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.7%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.7%	22.9%	31.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.7%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.7%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.7%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.7%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	7.6%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	2.2%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	4.4%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	4.4%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	7.9%	11.1%	4.4%	15.8%	25.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	8.2%	11.1%	4.4%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	8.2%	11.1%	4.4%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	8.2%	11.1%	4.4%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	8.2%	11.1%	4.4%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	8.2%	11.1%	4.4%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	8.2%	11.7%	2.8%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	8.2%	11.7%	2.8%	24.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	8.2%	11.7%	2.8%	24.8%	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	29%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	86.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	82.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗