KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

59%

42%

32%

24%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

WN2NO 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.85u · WN2 −55.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	12.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	47.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	10.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	38.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	43.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	32.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	30.6%	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	31.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	24.6%	31.7%	0.5%	24.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	30.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	35.0%	38.5%	19.9%	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	34.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	30.9%	25.8%	11.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	34.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	25.5%	30.9%	17.4%	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	25.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	72%	89.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	86.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	87.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	84.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	82.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Dallas runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗