KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

40%

36%

26%

18%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

WN2NO 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.65u · WN2 −66.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	9.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	7.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	37.2%	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	26.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.1%	24.9%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	19.4%	25.7%	0.3%	19.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	24.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	28.5%	31.7%	15.2%	22.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	28.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.5%	20.0%	8.4%	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	27.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	19.5%	24.2%	12.7%	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	19.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	86.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	84.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	84.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	82.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗