KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

26%

25%

15%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

WN2NO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.45u · WN2 −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	5.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	30.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	25.7%	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	16.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.0%	15.5%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	15.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	11.2%	15.8%	0.1%	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	14.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	17.5%	19.9%	8.2%	13.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	17.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	14.2%	11.0%	3.9%	10.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	15.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	13.6%	6.2%	11.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	10.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	87.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	86.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	84.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	82.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗