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KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
42%
EPS
26%
HRES
25%
AIFS
15%
WN2
9%
Consensus
23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u
VS
WN2NO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.45u · WN2 −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.3% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:0012.9%31.9%8.5%21.0%41.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:0012.9%31.9%12.4%21.0%41.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:0012.9%31.9%12.4%21.0%41.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0012.9%31.9%12.4%21.0%41.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:0012.9%31.9%12.4%21.0%41.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:0013.8%31.9%12.4%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0013.8%31.9%12.4%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0013.8%31.9%12.4%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0013.8%31.9%12.4%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:0013.8%31.9%12.4%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:0013.8%25.8%8.9%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:0013.8%25.8%8.9%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0013.8%25.8%8.9%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0015.0%26.3%8.9%25.2%42.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:0015.0%26.3%8.9%25.2%42.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%89.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON42%87.1°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%86.6°F3.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES25%84.1°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend25%87.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
AIFS Single15%82.9°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%82.2°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗