KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

19%

10%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 6.95u

WN2NO 86.1¢Risks 43.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.05u · WN2 −43.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	25.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	17.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	20.7%	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	12.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.0%	11.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	12.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	8.2%	11.9%	0.1%	8.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	11.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	13.2%	15.2%	5.7%	9.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	12.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	10.3%	7.8%	2.5%	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	11.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	7.2%	9.7%	4.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	7.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	32%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	23%	84.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	84.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	86.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	82.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗