KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

19%

10%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 6.95u

WN2NO 86.1¢Risks 43.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.05u · WN2 −43.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:47+00:00	12.9%	30.9%	12.0%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	12.9%	30.9%	12.0%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	12.9%	30.9%	12.0%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	12.9%	30.9%	12.0%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	12.9%	30.9%	12.0%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	12.9%	29.7%	10.8%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	12.9%	29.7%	10.8%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	12.9%	29.7%	10.8%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	11.5%	29.7%	10.8%	18.9%	4.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	11.5%	29.7%	10.9%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	11.5%	22.2%	10.9%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	11.5%	22.2%	10.9%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	11.5%	22.2%	10.9%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	11.5%	22.2%	7.7%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	11.5%	22.2%	7.7%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	11.5%	22.2%	7.7%	18.8%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	7.7%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	7.7%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	7.7%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	7.7%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	7.7%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	8.7%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	5.9%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	8.8%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	8.8%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	8.8%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	9.6%	22.2%	8.8%	16.8%	37.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	10.1%	22.2%	8.8%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	10.1%	22.2%	8.8%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	10.1%	22.2%	8.8%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	10.1%	22.2%	8.8%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	10.1%	22.2%	8.8%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	10.1%	16.0%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	10.1%	16.0%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	10.1%	16.0%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	11.1%	16.7%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	11.1%	16.7%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	11.1%	11.5%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	11.1%	11.5%	5.9%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	11.1%	11.5%	5.0%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	11.1%	11.5%	5.0%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	11.1%	11.5%	5.0%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	11.1%	11.5%	5.0%	20.7%	36.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.0%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.0%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.0%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.0%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	10.8%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	5.7%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	8.2%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	8.2%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	10.4%	11.5%	8.2%	18.2%	34.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	10.5%	11.5%	8.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	10.5%	11.5%	8.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	10.5%	11.5%	8.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	10.5%	11.5%	8.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	10.5%	11.5%	8.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	10.5%	9.8%	5.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	10.5%	9.8%	5.2%	19.4%	22.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	10.5%	9.8%	5.2%	19.4%	22.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	32%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	23%	84.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	84.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	86.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	82.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗