KDFW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

WN2NO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.17u · WN2 −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	11.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	5.3%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	7.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	5.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	10.5%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	6.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.1%	3.8%	0.1%	5.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	7.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.1%	4.2%	1.9%	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	1.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	28%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	15%	82.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	82.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	85.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	81.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗