WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDFW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
40%
HRES
31%
WN2
21%
AIFS
14%
ICON
5%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 22.4¢Risks 22.35u
VS
ICONNO 77.6¢Risks 77.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.65u · ICON −77.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%——0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.5%——7.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.7%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.0%——5.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.4%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.6%——10.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:007.5%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.2%——6.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.4%——7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.4%——15.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:008.7%——7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0010.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0023.1%——11.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:008.6%——17.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:004.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.6%——18.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:002.8%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:003.3%——24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:006.4%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0017.3%—14.3%12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:007.1%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:007.8%—5.1%19.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—3.5%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:009.0%—0.8%17.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—4.0%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:004.3%0.0%12.4%12.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——15.4%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%86.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble40%84.5°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES31%82.3°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%81.1°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single14%79.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON5%68.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261026-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗