KDSM / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

89%

45%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.7¢Risks 72.65u

ICONNO 27.3¢Risks 27.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.35u · ICON −27.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	94.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	98.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	95.5%	—	—	98.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	89.5%	—	95.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	99.4%	94.7%	—	97.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	73.6%	99.8%	97.1%	—	97.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	97.1%	81.1%	92.5%	—	97.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	85.7%	55.8%	96.9%	—	93.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	83.3%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	89.9%	58.7%	77.9%	—	90.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	84.5%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	67.8%	60.9%	79.7%	—	86.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	86.8%	64.8%	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	89.3%	65.2%	94.6%	—	91.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	89.0%	68.3%	—	—	87.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	96.0%	68.8%	99.2%	—	87.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	88.4%	66.5%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	80.2%	66.9%	75.3%	74.5%	82.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.0%	72.4%	77.7%	—	87.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	86.0%	65.9%	72.0%	77.6%	89.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	85.5%	56.0%	84.8%	—	87.4%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	85.6%	66.9%	92.9%	—	89.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	88.5%	51.3%	96.3%	—	89.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	82.7%	47.3%	88.7%	66.9%	89.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	79.9%	36.3%	88.9%	—	94.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	75.5%	47.1%	87.8%	70.7%	92.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	70.2%	41.0%	87.2%	—	97.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	71.0%	51.6%	91.1%	86.6%	95.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	77.2%	74.6%	88.5%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	>99%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	64.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0017
IFS HRES	89%	64.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	0.0121
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.1681
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.2070
ICON	45%	59.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.2992

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20260921-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 60°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗