KDSM / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

40%

27%

24%

23%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.45u

WN2NO 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.55u · WN2 −63.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:31+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	37.4%	44.4%	59.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	37.4%	44.4%	59.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	59.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	59.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	59.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	55.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	55.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	55.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	41.5%	44.4%	55.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	41.5%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	39.7%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	27.9%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	55.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	32.1%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	32.1%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	32.1%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	32.1%	71.0%	36.3%	34.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:19+00:00	32.1%	71.0%	36.3%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	32.1%	53.2%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	32.1%	53.2%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	32.1%	53.2%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	29.6%	53.2%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	29.6%	53.2%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	29.6%	50.0%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	29.6%	50.0%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	29.6%	50.0%	22.0%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	29.6%	50.0%	19.5%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	29.6%	50.0%	19.5%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	29.6%	50.0%	19.5%	30.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	19.5%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	19.5%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	19.5%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	19.5%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	19.5%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	22.9%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	22.9%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	32.1%	50.0%	22.9%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	39.9%	50.0%	22.9%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	39.9%	50.0%	22.9%	23.7%	27.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	39.9%	50.0%	22.9%	23.7%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	50%	61.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2500
National Blend	43%	61.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1884
AIFS Single	40%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1592
ICON	27%	59.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0745
IFS HRES	24%	58.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0562
WeatherNext 2	23%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0524

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗