KDSM / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

40%

27%

24%

23%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.45u

WN2NO 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.55u · WN2 −63.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	7.9%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	18.9%	0.0%	1.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.0%	45.6%	—	31.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	32.3%	2.0%	35.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	50.8%	5.1%	28.1%	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	74.9%	9.7%	37.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	31.9%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	46.5%	16.7%	29.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	53.6%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	40.9%	24.4%	20.3%	—	23.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	31.8%	23.8%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	27.1%	15.3%	14.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	23.4%	12.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	21.2%	13.9%	14.5%	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	22.0%	7.2%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	23.0%	6.6%	13.1%	0.0%	11.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	22.3%	5.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	16.0%	6.1%	9.4%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	12.6%	4.3%	9.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	11.2%	4.9%	10.0%	0.9%	15.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	8.2%	5.6%	10.3%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	7.9%	8.9%	5.0%	0.8%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	7.1%	9.8%	5.0%	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	13.0%	13.0%	6.8%	2.3%	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	12.8%	12.0%	5.1%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	8.9%	11.0%	2.6%	2.0%	4.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	14.1%	4.5%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	50%	61.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2500
National Blend	43%	61.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1884
AIFS Single	40%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1592
ICON	27%	59.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0745
IFS HRES	24%	58.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0562
WeatherNext 2	23%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0524

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗