KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

81%

65%

51%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

AIFSNO 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.75u · AIFS −29.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	2.2%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	67.0%	28.6%	0.9%	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	88.7%	50.0%	55.1%	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	79.5%	56.8%	59.1%	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	72.6%	20.6%	56.4%	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	73.5%	55.8%	45.8%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	53.4%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	64.6%	67.0%	36.3%	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	62.4%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	63.6%	66.1%	29.7%	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	63.9%	58.5%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	65.2%	56.8%	41.3%	—	49.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	65.6%	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	64.1%	59.2%	42.8%	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	57.4%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	57.6%	55.5%	43.5%	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	51.1%	57.8%	0.0%	—	53.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	45.4%	64.8%	53.5%	—	60.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	51.2%	66.4%	50.0%	—	59.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	51.2%	71.3%	52.5%	71.3%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	55.1%	74.1%	48.7%	—	56.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	47.3%	74.9%	48.7%	71.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	75.8%	45.8%	—	62.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	79.8%	83.7%	54.3%	89.8%	72.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	82.8%	68.9%	38.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	82.9%	73.7%	33.1%	91.7%	62.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	96.9%	88.5%	69.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	70.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0119
WeatherNext 2	81%	67.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0372
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.1204
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2275
AIFS Single	51%	62.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2362

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗