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KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
89%
WN2
81%
EPS
65%
AIFS
51%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 70.2¢Risks 70.25u
VS
AIFSNO 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.75u · AIFS −29.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:09+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:09+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:09+00:0051.4%65.3%80.7%89.1%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0051.4%65.3%80.7%89.1%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:0051.4%65.3%80.7%89.1%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:0051.4%65.3%80.7%89.1%
2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:0051.4%65.3%80.7%89.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES89%70.3°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.0119
WeatherNext 281%67.1°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.0372
IFS Ensemble65%65.3°F7.1°F2026-10-10 00:000.1204
National Blend52%63.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 00:000.2275
AIFS Single51%62.7°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.2362

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗