KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

43%

38%

10%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	46.5%	13.7%	0.2%	—	44.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	74.6%	29.1%	33.7%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	59.8%	34.4%	36.5%	—	46.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	50.0%	7.8%	33.0%	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	50.0%	31.5%	23.2%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	28.8%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	38.8%	41.3%	15.6%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	35.9%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	36.4%	39.1%	11.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	36.1%	30.9%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	36.6%	28.7%	17.1%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	36.3%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	34.0%	29.4%	17.0%	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	27.1%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	26.4%	24.7%	16.2%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	20.6%	25.8%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	16.0%	31.0%	21.5%	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	19.1%	31.4%	18.3%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	18.2%	35.4%	19.1%	35.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	20.0%	37.3%	15.8%	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	14.1%	36.8%	14.9%	33.1%	20.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	28.8%	36.3%	12.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	40.0%	45.7%	16.3%	57.2%	30.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	42.5%	26.0%	7.5%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	40.6%	29.0%	5.2%	57.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	73.3%	48.4%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	67.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0734
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0847
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3283
IFS HRES	38%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3795
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5595
ICON	10%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.8082

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗