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KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
13%
EPS
4%
WN2
2%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 6.6¢Risks 3.30u
VS
AIFSNO 93.4¢Risks 46.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.70u · AIFS −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:10+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:10+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:10+00:000.4%4.3%2.5%12.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:000.4%4.3%2.5%12.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:000.4%4.3%2.5%12.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:000.4%4.3%2.5%12.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:52+00:000.4%4.3%2.5%12.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES13%70.3°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.0164
National Blend5%63.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 00:000.0025
IFS Ensemble4%65.3°F7.1°F2026-10-10 00:000.0018
WeatherNext 22%67.1°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.0006
AIFS Single<1%62.7°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗