KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.6¢Risks 3.30u

AIFSNO 93.4¢Risks 46.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.70u · AIFS −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.2%	0.3%	0.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	0.4%	0.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	70.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0164
National Blend	5%	63.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0025
IFS Ensemble	4%	65.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0018
WeatherNext 2	2%	67.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	<1%	62.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗