KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

79%

40%

35%

20%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

ICONNO 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.90u · ICON −48.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	1.2%	41.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	72.0%	12.2%	1.3%	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	62.9%	0.4%	23.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	2.8%	18.4%	—	37.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	13.6%	32.3%	16.4%	—	24.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	43.4%	22.5%	20.1%	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	3.3%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	27.7%	16.1%	15.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	9.2%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	8.3%	28.2%	10.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	16.5%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	7.9%	25.5%	7.9%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	13.5%	22.6%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	17.6%	32.1%	13.9%	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	23.6%	39.5%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	22.1%	40.3%	14.3%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	24.9%	44.4%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	19.9%	36.3%	12.1%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	33.6%	38.1%	13.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	28.7%	38.9%	15.9%	—	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	37.3%	28.0%	12.2%	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	28.4%	18.2%	8.9%	43.3%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.3%	19.1%	13.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	58.6%	28.0%	13.0%	47.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	70.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	64.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗