KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

60%

60%

49%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

ICONNO 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.95u · ICON −29.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	72.5%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	62.8%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	1.1%	77.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	51.4%	33.0%	0.1%	—	65.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	78.5%	55.8%	36.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	69.7%	67.7%	38.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	58.7%	58.7%	23.6%	—	49.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	65.5%	57.5%	39.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	39.0%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	48.2%	55.2%	38.8%	—	47.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	55.4%	26.4%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	32.2%	47.2%	40.0%	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	23.8%	57.5%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	41.3%	51.9%	45.1%	—	53.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	24.9%	72.6%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	30.3%	73.2%	36.9%	0.0%	44.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	56.3%	72.1%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	56.5%	74.5%	38.2%	—	53.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	59.0%	69.5%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	52.3%	72.0%	31.0%	0.0%	46.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	67.5%	60.7%	37.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	80.1%	63.4%	45.0%	81.8%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	83.4%	63.9%	46.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	77.0%	64.4%	44.6%	81.8%	60.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	88.9%	65.0%	48.6%	—	70.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	91.1%	62.8%	47.1%	91.6%	76.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	68.9%	36.6%	—	67.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗