KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

60%

60%

49%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

ICONNO 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.95u · ICON −29.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	86.1%	60.2%	87.1%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	86.1%	60.3%	87.1%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	86.1%	60.3%	87.1%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	86.1%	60.3%	84.1%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	86.1%	60.3%	84.1%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	86.1%	60.3%	84.1%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	84.1%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	84.1%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	84.1%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	84.1%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	84.1%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	88.1%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	91.2%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	91.2%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	91.2%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	91.2%	60.3%	85.6%	59.6%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗