KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

59%

50%

42%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.95u · ICON −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:49+00:00	86.7%	51.2%	73.2%	57.1%	39.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	86.7%	51.2%	75.8%	57.1%	39.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.7%	51.2%	75.8%	57.1%	39.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	86.7%	51.2%	75.8%	57.1%	39.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	82.5%	51.2%	75.8%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	82.5%	51.2%	75.8%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	82.5%	51.2%	75.8%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	82.5%	51.2%	75.8%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	82.5%	51.2%	75.8%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	82.5%	57.2%	77.1%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	82.5%	57.2%	77.1%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	82.5%	57.2%	77.1%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	69.6%	57.2%	77.1%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	69.6%	57.1%	77.1%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	84.8%	51.2%	52.4%	54.5%	28.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	84.8%	51.2%	81.3%	54.5%	28.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	84.8%	51.2%	81.3%	54.5%	28.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	84.8%	51.2%	81.3%	54.5%	28.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	84.8%	51.2%	81.3%	54.5%	28.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	86.1%	51.2%	81.3%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	86.1%	51.2%	81.3%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	86.1%	51.2%	81.3%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	86.1%	51.2%	81.3%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	86.1%	50.0%	79.0%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	86.1%	50.0%	79.0%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	86.1%	50.0%	79.0%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	86.1%	50.0%	79.0%	58.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	79.9%	50.0%	79.0%	58.7%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	68.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	67.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗