KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

59%

50%

42%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.95u · ICON −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	67.0%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	56.5%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	0.7%	71.8%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	44.4%	26.9%	0.1%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	72.8%	48.5%	29.7%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	62.7%	60.6%	30.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	50.8%	50.8%	17.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	57.5%	49.2%	31.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	31.1%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	39.6%	46.5%	30.7%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	46.4%	19.6%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	24.4%	38.2%	31.4%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	17.1%	48.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	32.1%	42.3%	35.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	17.7%	63.7%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	21.9%	64.1%	27.6%	0.0%	34.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	45.8%	62.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	45.6%	64.9%	28.2%	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	47.8%	59.0%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	40.8%	61.5%	21.5%	0.0%	35.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	56.0%	48.8%	26.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	70.2%	51.2%	33.1%	72.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	74.1%	51.3%	33.7%	—	39.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	65.7%	51.3%	31.9%	71.6%	47.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	80.9%	51.4%	35.0%	—	56.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	83.7%	48.5%	33.1%	84.6%	64.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	54.5%	23.6%	—	53.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	68.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	67.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗