KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

66%

42%

36%

34%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.60u · ICON −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:11+00:00	30.7%	33.6%	53.9%	45.9%	55.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	30.7%	33.6%	53.9%	45.9%	55.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	30.7%	33.6%	49.0%	45.9%	55.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	30.7%	33.6%	49.0%	45.9%	55.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	30.7%	33.6%	49.0%	45.9%	55.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	30.7%	33.6%	49.0%	45.9%	55.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	49.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	49.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	49.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	49.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	70.0%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	61.1%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	61.1%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	61.1%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	61.1%	33.6%	51.0%	47.9%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	69.2%	28.8%	54.3%	44.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	69.2%	28.8%	54.3%	44.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	69.2%	28.8%	54.3%	44.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	69.2%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	69.2%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	69.2%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	37.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	57.5%	44.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	57.5%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	70.0%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	75.1%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	75.1%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	75.1%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	75.1%	28.8%	53.2%	41.3%	24.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:46+00:00	51.9%	28.8%	55.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	51.9%	28.8%	55.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	51.9%	28.8%	47.6%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	51.9%	28.8%	47.6%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	51.9%	28.8%	47.6%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	51.9%	28.8%	47.6%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	62.8%	28.8%	47.6%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	62.8%	28.8%	47.6%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	62.8%	28.8%	47.6%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	62.8%	28.8%	47.6%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	62.8%	28.8%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	62.8%	28.7%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	62.8%	28.7%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	62.8%	28.7%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	71.3%	28.7%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	71.3%	28.7%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	71.3%	28.7%	29.7%	36.9%	13.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	73.1%	30.1%	53.9%	31.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	73.1%	30.1%	73.0%	31.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	73.1%	30.1%	73.0%	31.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	73.1%	30.1%	73.0%	31.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	72.0%	30.1%	73.0%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	72.0%	30.1%	73.0%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	72.0%	30.1%	73.0%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	72.0%	30.1%	73.0%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	72.0%	30.1%	73.0%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	72.0%	35.2%	70.9%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	72.0%	35.2%	70.9%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	72.0%	35.2%	70.9%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	63.9%	35.2%	70.9%	43.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	63.9%	35.2%	70.9%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	70.9%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	70.9%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	70.9%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	52.7%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	52.7%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	63.9%	36.1%	52.7%	43.6%	33.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	52.7%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	52.7%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	52.7%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	52.7%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	52.7%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	68.6%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	56.8%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	71.2%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	28.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	77.3%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	77.3%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	77.3%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	77.3%	36.1%	66.0%	42.5%	33.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	71.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	69.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗