KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

66%

42%

36%

34%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.60u · ICON −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	55.0%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	0.2%	59.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	31.1%	16.6%	0.0%	—	45.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	59.4%	34.3%	18.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	47.7%	45.4%	18.9%	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	35.2%	35.2%	9.3%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	40.9%	33.0%	18.4%	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	17.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	24.1%	29.9%	17.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	29.4%	9.6%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	12.4%	22.3%	17.2%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	7.7%	30.1%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	17.1%	24.7%	19.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	7.6%	44.0%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	9.8%	43.9%	13.4%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	26.2%	41.6%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	25.5%	43.5%	13.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	26.7%	36.7%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	20.7%	38.5%	8.5%	0.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	32.5%	26.3%	10.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	46.3%	27.6%	14.4%	48.8%	25.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	50.0%	26.9%	14.3%	—	18.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	39.4%	26.2%	12.7%	46.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	56.9%	25.3%	13.9%	—	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	60.1%	22.2%	12.2%	61.4%	35.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	26.0%	7.0%	—	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	71.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	69.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗