KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

33%

30%

24%

14%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

EPSNO 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.50u · EPS −66.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	42.5%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	31.2%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.1%	46.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	19.9%	9.3%	0.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	44.9%	22.1%	10.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	33.0%	30.9%	10.3%	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	21.8%	21.8%	4.3%	—	15.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	25.8%	19.5%	9.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	8.8%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	12.7%	16.7%	8.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	16.1%	3.9%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	5.3%	11.0%	7.9%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	2.9%	15.9%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	7.5%	12.1%	9.0%	—	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	2.7%	25.7%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	3.5%	25.1%	5.2%	0.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	12.1%	22.8%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	11.4%	23.8%	4.7%	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	11.8%	18.3%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	8.1%	19.1%	2.5%	0.0%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	14.5%	10.8%	3.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	23.6%	11.2%	4.6%	25.6%	10.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	25.9%	10.3%	4.3%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	17.3%	9.5%	3.5%	22.0%	7.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	30.0%	8.6%	3.7%	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	31.8%	6.8%	2.9%	33.1%	13.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	8.0%	1.3%	—	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	72.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	69.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	69.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗