KDSM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

33%

30%

24%

14%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

EPSNO 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.50u · EPS −66.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:31+00:00	71.5%	37.8%	53.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	71.5%	37.8%	53.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	71.5%	37.8%	53.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	71.5%	37.8%	53.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	71.5%	27.6%	46.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00	71.5%	27.6%	46.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	71.5%	27.6%	46.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	71.5%	27.6%	46.0%	58.1%	7.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	69.1%	27.6%	46.0%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	69.1%	30.0%	46.0%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:32+00:00	69.1%	30.0%	46.0%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	69.1%	30.0%	46.0%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	69.1%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	69.1%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	69.1%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	7.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	50.8%	58.1%	48.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	50.8%	60.6%	48.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	61.1%	60.6%	48.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	61.1%	60.6%	48.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	67.8%	30.0%	61.1%	60.6%	48.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	32.8%	30.0%	61.1%	60.6%	48.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	32.8%	30.0%	61.1%	60.6%	48.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00	57.4%	9.5%	44.9%	36.9%	65.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	57.4%	9.5%	44.9%	36.9%	65.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	57.4%	9.5%	44.9%	36.9%	65.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	57.4%	9.5%	38.2%	36.9%	65.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	57.4%	9.5%	38.2%	36.9%	65.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	57.4%	9.5%	38.2%	36.9%	65.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	47.8%	9.5%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	47.8%	9.5%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	47.8%	9.5%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	47.8%	9.5%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	47.8%	9.5%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	47.8%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	47.8%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	47.8%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	31.1%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	53.7%	10.1%	38.2%	24.2%	57.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	54.0%	10.1%	38.2%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	54.0%	10.1%	38.2%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	54.0%	10.1%	38.2%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	54.0%	10.1%	38.2%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	54.0%	10.1%	38.2%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	54.0%	10.1%	34.9%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	54.0%	19.0%	34.9%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	54.0%	19.0%	34.9%	32.6%	41.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	18.3%	19.0%	34.9%	32.6%	42.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	18.3%	19.0%	34.9%	32.6%	42.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	45.2%	15.1%	32.2%	34.5%	47.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	45.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	47.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	45.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	45.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	47.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	55.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	55.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	55.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	55.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	55.2%	15.1%	40.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	55.2%	14.4%	33.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	55.2%	14.4%	33.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	55.2%	14.4%	33.4%	34.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	52.6%	14.4%	33.4%	29.5%	23.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	52.6%	14.4%	33.4%	29.5%	23.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	72.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	69.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	69.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗