KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

57%

55%

44%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

EPSNO 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.30u · EPS −32.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	2.2%	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	27.3%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	4.0%	34.2%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	52.1%	22.4%	0.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	56.6%	47.8%	10.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	47.7%	9.7%	28.9%	—	37.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	47.6%	12.3%	24.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	33.8%	7.4%	24.5%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	21.4%	41.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	33.8%	50.0%	22.1%	—	35.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	36.8%	49.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	25.9%	47.2%	23.7%	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	42.5%	50.9%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	27.9%	50.0%	25.5%	—	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	27.4%	46.0%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	38.8%	44.9%	21.2%	—	29.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	53.2%	41.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	43.5%	18.3%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	55.6%	44.4%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	51.2%	48.8%	14.7%	0.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	69.6%	48.8%	16.0%	—	34.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	69.2%	42.6%	19.9%	90.5%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	44.9%	20.9%	—	38.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	76.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	71.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗