KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

57%

55%

44%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

EPSNO 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.30u · EPS −32.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	55.9%	22.4%	60.1%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	55.9%	22.4%	60.1%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	55.9%	22.4%	66.6%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	55.9%	22.4%	66.6%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	55.9%	22.4%	66.6%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	55.9%	22.4%	66.6%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	66.6%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	66.6%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	66.6%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	66.6%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.7%	50.0%	67.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:50+00:00	65.7%	28.7%	78.2%	45.9%	54.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	65.7%	28.7%	80.9%	45.9%	54.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	65.7%	28.7%	80.9%	45.9%	54.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	65.7%	28.7%	80.9%	45.9%	54.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	74.4%	28.7%	80.9%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	74.4%	28.7%	80.9%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	74.4%	28.7%	80.9%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	74.4%	28.7%	80.9%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	74.4%	28.7%	80.9%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	74.4%	37.4%	79.0%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	74.4%	37.4%	79.0%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	74.4%	37.4%	79.0%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	70.0%	37.4%	79.0%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	69.9%	37.4%	78.9%	46.8%	48.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	69.9%	32.0%	61.6%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	69.9%	32.0%	76.5%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	69.9%	32.0%	76.5%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	69.9%	32.0%	76.5%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	69.9%	32.0%	76.5%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	79.3%	32.0%	76.5%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	79.3%	32.0%	76.5%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	79.3%	32.0%	76.5%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	79.3%	32.0%	76.5%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	79.3%	31.3%	69.3%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	79.3%	31.3%	69.3%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	79.3%	31.3%	69.3%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	79.3%	31.3%	69.3%	40.3%	33.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	73.6%	31.8%	69.3%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:49+00:00	73.6%	31.8%	69.3%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	73.6%	31.4%	69.3%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	73.6%	31.4%	69.3%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	73.6%	31.4%	60.5%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	73.6%	31.4%	60.5%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	73.6%	31.4%	60.5%	40.3%	33.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	60.5%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	60.5%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	60.5%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	60.5%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	60.5%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	77.3%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	71.4%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	85.0%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	85.0%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	79.4%	31.4%	85.0%	42.0%	46.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	82.5%	31.4%	85.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	82.5%	31.4%	85.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	82.5%	31.4%	85.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	82.5%	31.4%	85.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	82.5%	31.4%	85.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	82.5%	38.4%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	82.5%	38.4%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	82.5%	38.4%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	79.2%	38.4%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	79.3%	38.4%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	79.3%	39.5%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	79.3%	39.5%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	79.3%	39.5%	83.3%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	79.3%	39.5%	77.1%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	79.3%	39.5%	77.1%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	79.3%	39.5%	77.1%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	77.1%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	77.1%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	77.1%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	77.1%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	77.1%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	81.4%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	80.8%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	83.9%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	86.3%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	86.3%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	86.3%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	86.3%	39.5%	90.2%	46.1%	54.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	86.3%	43.9%	91.5%	57.5%	54.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	86.3%	43.9%	91.5%	57.5%	54.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	86.3%	43.9%	91.5%	57.5%	54.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	86.3%	43.9%	91.5%	57.5%	54.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:16+00:00	86.4%	43.9%	91.5%	57.5%	54.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	86.4%	43.9%	91.5%	57.5%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	76.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	71.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗