KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

63%

53%

32%

24%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

EPSNO 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +55.60u · EPS −55.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	1.5%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	22.1%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	2.8%	28.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	45.1%	17.5%	0.0%	—	17.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	49.3%	40.6%	7.6%	—	26.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	40.2%	6.8%	22.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	39.7%	8.7%	18.9%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	26.5%	4.9%	18.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	15.7%	33.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	26.2%	41.3%	16.1%	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	28.7%	40.2%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	19.0%	38.2%	17.2%	—	22.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	33.5%	41.5%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	20.3%	40.4%	18.3%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	19.7%	36.3%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	29.4%	34.9%	14.5%	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	42.6%	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	39.2%	33.1%	11.9%	—	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	44.4%	33.6%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	39.6%	37.4%	9.0%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	58.4%	37.0%	9.7%	—	24.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	57.4%	30.9%	12.4%	84.1%	29.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	32.5%	12.8%	—	26.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	65%	77.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	75.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	73.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	70.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	70.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 74°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗