KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

50%

19%

15%

12%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

EPSNO 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.40u · EPS −67.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	0.8%	13.9%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	25.7%	7.2%	0.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	28.5%	21.5%	2.4%	—	12.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	20.5%	1.9%	9.3%	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	19.5%	2.5%	6.9%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	10.4%	1.1%	6.3%	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	4.9%	14.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	9.7%	19.0%	5.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	10.8%	17.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	5.8%	16.0%	5.0%	—	7.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	12.7%	17.7%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	5.9%	16.5%	5.1%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	5.4%	13.5%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.4%	12.3%	3.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	16.3%	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	13.7%	10.4%	2.3%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	16.1%	10.2%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.7%	11.6%	1.3%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	24.4%	10.8%	1.4%	—	5.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	22.7%	7.5%	1.8%	52.5%	7.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	7.7%	1.8%	—	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	53%	76.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	71.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗