KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

83%

67%

59%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.4¢Risks 78.40u

EPSNO 21.6¢Risks 21.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.60u · EPS −21.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	75.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	1.4%	17.6%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	80.1%	11.9%	1.1%	—	48.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	58.7%	77.4%	7.1%	—	51.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	60.6%	82.1%	23.4%	—	59.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	48.4%	82.1%	28.1%	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	83.7%	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	34.5%	81.0%	40.1%	—	55.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	56.0%	83.8%	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	66.2%	83.3%	60.4%	—	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	58.0%	78.5%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	66.1%	79.1%	42.7%	—	56.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	77.6%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	83.5%	76.8%	56.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	82.3%	61.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	78.1%	79.5%	57.2%	—	55.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	91.6%	69.3%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	91.5%	79.4%	58.7%	97.4%	70.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	80.2%	0.0%	—	70.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	93.5%	81.0%	61.5%	—	75.8%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	95.2%	83.3%	66.4%	—	80.1%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	98.0%	61.1%	76.4%	99.9%	88.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.5%	85.0%	78.1%	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	92.1%	—	99.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	80.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	79.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	83%	79.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗