WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
93%
ICON
83%
HRES
67%
EPS
59%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.4¢Risks 78.40u
VS
EPSNO 21.6¢Risks 21.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.60u · EPS −21.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 66.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00ICON: 82.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:0096.8%60.0%92.5%61.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:0096.8%63.9%92.5%61.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:0096.8%63.9%92.5%61.2%19.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:0093.9%63.9%92.2%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:0093.9%63.9%92.2%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:0093.9%59.4%92.2%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:0093.9%59.4%92.2%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:0093.9%59.4%91.9%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:0093.9%59.4%91.9%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:0093.9%59.4%91.9%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:0093.9%59.4%91.9%61.1%19.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:0094.1%59.4%91.9%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:0094.1%59.4%91.9%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0094.1%59.4%91.9%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:0094.1%59.4%91.9%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:0094.1%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:0094.0%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:0094.0%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:0093.4%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:0093.4%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:0093.4%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0093.4%59.4%97.4%66.9%82.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%80.4°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single93%79.1°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON83%79.9°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES67%73.3°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%71.6°F4.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend53%71.0°F7.7°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗