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KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
95%
WN2
89%
HRES
55%
EPS
53%
ICON
17%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u
VS
ICONNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:0095.3%52.9%88.6%55.0%17.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:0095.3%52.9%88.6%55.0%17.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:0095.3%52.9%88.6%55.0%17.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:0095.3%52.9%88.6%55.0%17.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:0095.3%52.9%88.6%55.0%17.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single95%80.9°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 289%78.0°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES55%72.3°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%71.9°F5.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON17%62.1°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗