Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 72°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
No model probability history is available for this view yet.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS Single | 95% | 80.9°F | 5.6°F | 2026-10-15 00:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 89% | 78.0°F | 5.4°F | 2026-10-14 18:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 55% | 72.3°F | 6.3°F | 2026-10-15 00:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 53% | 72.0°F | 6.6°F | 2026-10-15 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 53% | 71.9°F | 5.5°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 17% | 62.1°F | 9.9°F | 2026-10-15 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 72°F · KDSM
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC
Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗