KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

89%

55%

53%

17%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

ICONNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	69.9%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	0.9%	13.5%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	74.8%	8.7%	0.7%	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	51.5%	71.5%	4.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	53.0%	76.6%	17.9%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	40.5%	76.4%	21.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	78.2%	—	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	27.2%	74.9%	32.2%	—	47.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	47.4%	78.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	57.8%	77.2%	51.7%	—	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	49.1%	71.3%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	57.3%	71.8%	33.9%	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	69.9%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	76.8%	68.7%	47.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	75.1%	52.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	69.7%	71.5%	46.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	86.8%	59.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	86.3%	70.8%	47.8%	95.3%	60.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	71.4%	0.0%	—	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	80.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	72.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	71.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	62.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗