KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

64%

60%

38%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

EPSNO 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.10u · EPS −35.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	0.1%	54.7%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	35.6%	64.4%	0.1%	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	24.9%	66.3%	38.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	2.9%	63.5%	12.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	68.8%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	31.6%	52.4%	35.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	50.0%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	25.8%	51.7%	25.8%	—	29.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	30.3%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	57.0%	63.7%	19.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	55.4%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	50.9%	66.1%	12.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	74.7%	66.5%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	64.3%	60.6%	16.5%	82.3%	39.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	61.8%	—	—	36.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	81.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	80.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	75.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	76.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	71.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 74°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗