KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

64%

60%

38%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

EPSNO 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.10u · EPS −35.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	91.9%	40.3%	93.3%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	91.8%	40.3%	93.2%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	91.8%	38.3%	93.2%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	91.8%	38.3%	93.2%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	91.8%	38.3%	93.2%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	91.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	91.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	91.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	59.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	59.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	59.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	93.9%	43.2%	59.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	93.9%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	88.8%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	91.5%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	91.5%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	91.5%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	91.5%	38.3%	90.2%	64.5%	59.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	81.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	80.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	75.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	76.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	71.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 74°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗