KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

62%

31%

20%

13%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

ICONNO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · ICON −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	0.1%	41.3%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	23.5%	50.7%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	14.8%	52.2%	25.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	1.1%	48.5%	6.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	53.9%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	18.9%	36.7%	21.8%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	14.3%	35.3%	14.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	17.3%	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	39.6%	46.5%	9.7%	—	17.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	37.6%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	33.0%	48.2%	5.3%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	57.5%	48.1%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	45.1%	41.3%	7.2%	67.0%	22.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	42.0%	—	—	19.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	78.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	66%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	76.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	72.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	67.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗