KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

62%

31%

20%

13%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

ICONNO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · ICON −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:33+00:00	85.3%	27.5%	86.5%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	85.2%	27.5%	86.4%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	85.2%	25.8%	86.4%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	85.2%	25.8%	86.4%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	85.2%	25.8%	86.4%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	85.2%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	85.2%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	85.2%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	6.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	87.6%	31.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	87.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	80.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	84.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	84.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	84.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	84.8%	25.8%	81.6%	52.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00	72.9%	20.0%	72.5%	40.4%	39.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	72.9%	20.0%	72.5%	40.4%	39.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	72.9%	20.0%	75.3%	40.4%	39.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	72.9%	20.0%	75.3%	40.4%	39.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	72.9%	20.0%	75.3%	40.4%	39.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	72.9%	20.0%	75.3%	40.4%	39.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	66.5%	20.0%	75.3%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	66.5%	20.0%	75.3%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	66.5%	20.0%	75.3%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	66.5%	20.0%	75.3%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	66.5%	20.0%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	66.5%	19.9%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	66.5%	19.9%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	66.5%	19.9%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	71.0%	19.9%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	71.0%	19.9%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	71.0%	19.9%	61.8%	31.4%	12.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	78.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	66%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	76.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	72.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	67.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗