KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

29%

21%

12%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

EPSNO 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.30u · EPS −65.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.0%	34.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	18.4%	43.7%	0.0%	—	24.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	10.9%	44.9%	19.9%	—	15.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.7%	40.9%	4.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	46.1%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	14.0%	29.5%	16.4%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	27.0%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	10.1%	27.9%	10.1%	—	12.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	12.3%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	31.4%	37.9%	6.5%	—	12.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	29.4%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	25.1%	39.1%	3.2%	—	6.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	48.1%	38.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	35.7%	32.1%	4.4%	57.7%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	73.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	71.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗