KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

29%

21%

12%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

EPSNO 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.30u · EPS −65.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:49+00:00	52.4%	11.1%	51.9%	20.4%	33.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	52.4%	11.7%	51.9%	20.4%	33.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	52.4%	11.7%	51.9%	20.4%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	52.4%	11.7%	47.1%	20.4%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	52.4%	11.7%	47.1%	20.4%	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	52.4%	11.7%	47.1%	20.4%	33.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	47.1%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	47.1%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	47.1%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	47.1%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	47.1%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	50.8%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	51.6%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	51.6%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	51.6%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	51.6%	11.7%	57.7%	20.8%	28.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	73.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	71.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	72.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗