KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

45%

22%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

ICONNO 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.50u · ICON −67.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.0%	28.8%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	14.1%	36.9%	0.0%	—	19.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	7.9%	37.8%	15.2%	—	11.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	0.4%	33.7%	2.9%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	38.5%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	10.0%	23.0%	11.9%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	20.7%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	6.9%	21.3%	6.9%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	8.5%	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	24.1%	29.9%	4.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	22.2%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	18.4%	30.6%	1.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	38.8%	30.1%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	27.1%	24.0%	2.5%	48.0%	10.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	78.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	76.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	72.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	70.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	67.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗