KDSM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

45%

22%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

ICONNO 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.50u · ICON −67.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00	59.5%	11.3%	56.8%	29.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	59.5%	11.3%	56.8%	29.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	59.5%	11.3%	60.1%	29.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	59.5%	11.3%	60.1%	29.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	59.5%	11.3%	60.1%	29.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	59.5%	11.3%	60.1%	29.3%	28.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	60.1%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	60.1%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	60.1%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	60.1%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	52.2%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	57.3%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	57.3%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	57.3%	11.3%	44.9%	21.5%	7.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	78.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	76.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	72.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	70.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	67.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗